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P(not X and not Y and not Z) = P(not X) * P(not Y) * P(not Z) So instead of thinking about it as P(X or Y or Z) (which has a somewhat ugly formula), we can think of it as one minus P(not X and not Y and not Z) (since the chance something doesn't happen is one minus the chance it does happen).Īnd that lets us use our formula from above: Winning on one of your draws is the same thing as not losing on all of your draws. There are formulas we could use for this, but it's easier if we think about the problem a different way. In other words, because these events are independent:Īnd the same goes for all three events together:īut in this case, we want to know the chance you win on one of your draws. That means the probability of Y doesn't change if you know X happened, so P(Y|X) is just P(Y). In this case, because the events are independent, knowing something about X tells you nothing about Y. Where P(Y|X) means "the chance that Y happened if you know that X happened". 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